[原创]对“中国电信业的改革，走一步是一步”帖子的一些说明

sandro

<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">感谢坛子上的兄弟姐妹对“中国电信业的改革，走一步是一步“的帖子提出的意见，对于今后国内三家运营商的发展，确实是仁者见仁、智者见智。可以分析的方面很多，可以列举的数据很多。从不同的角度分析，可以得出不同的结论，这是很正常的。到目前为止，我在网上和媒体上看到的评论和分析可以说五花八门，三家都分别有人看好，三家都分别有人不看好。对每家运营商来说，都有机会，也都有一大堆问题，这些因素错综复杂，无法完全量化去简单计算，因此难免会有主观的判断，也难免会有分歧。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">因此，我对这三家运营商的未来发展的预计都比较谨慎，也不能说的很绝对。但是，我有我的判断原则，这就是判断一个企业的发展前景，不是看他眼前怎么样，关键是看他是否看清了未来的方向并且坚持朝这个方向迈进。柯达当年很</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">NB</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，可是数码相机的普及差点要了他的命；</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">Novell</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">当年很</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">NB</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，可是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">IP</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">网的普及让他几乎消失；</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">IBM</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">当年很</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">NB</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，可是微软的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">C</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">操作系统却让后者成为了计算机时代真正的霸主；</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">Yahoo</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">当年很</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">NB</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，可是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">Google</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">的新搜索技术和界面风格让他一蹶不振。每当产业处于变革的时候，能抓住机会的往往不是那些很</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">NB</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">的公司，这样的例子实在是太多了。很幸运，或者说是很不幸，我们所处的通信行业目前也正处于产业变革的前夜，对于未来，我感到的恐惧甚至多于期待。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">观察上一代人，我们会觉得自己很年轻，看看这些“老家伙”，只会用纸发传真，敲键盘只能一个指头一个指头的按，连邮件都发不来，更不要说上网了，他们怎么可能预计电信业未来的发展，完全是过时的一代。可是我们自己呢，难道我们就能够保证跟上时代？不知道大家有没有观察我们的下一代人？那些大学生、中学生甚至是小学生们，他们不懂网络原理，可是能够比我们更快的速度在网上找到所需要的东西；他们没学过计算机安全，可是可以轻而易举的通过互联网在你的硬盘上建一个目录（这是我的亲身遭遇，呵呵）；他们敲键盘的速度并不快，可是用手机发短信的速度却快的不可思议。这就是我们的下一代，在他们的眼里，也许我们这些所谓的年轻人都是“老土”。未来的电信业发展会被这些人引向何方？我们可以准确预测吗？</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">可能很多人连想都没有想过上面的问题，我们总习惯于在自己的圈子里思考问题。为什么不能跳出这个圈子，从更多的角度和更广的范围来思考问题呢？是不是满脑子的套餐、漫游、交换、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">IP</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">CDMA</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">就能应付未来的竞争？</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">去年我去韩国考察的时候，发现了一个非常有趣的现象。</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">韩国最大的移动运营商是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">SK</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，占据</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">50</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">％的市场份额，老二是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">KTF</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，占据了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">30</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">％的市场份额。但是到了WCDMA</span><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">时代却颠倒了过来，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">KTF</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">成了老大。根据今年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">月份看到的最新统计数据，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">KTF</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">的</span><chmetcnv unitname="g" sourcevalue="3" hasspace="False" negative="False" numbertype="1" tcsc="0" wst="on"></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">3G</font></span><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">用户数已超过</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">400</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">万，而</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">SK</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">电讯是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">330</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">万，</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">目前在韩国，三分之二的手机购买者选择购买3G</span><chmetcnv unitname="g" sourcevalue="3" hasspace="False" negative="False" numbertype="1" tcsc="0" wst="on"></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">手机，其中</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">84%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">KTF</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">手机。为什么两家同样采用</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">WCDMA</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">制式，推出</span><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">服务的时间也差不多，老大</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">SK</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">却干不过</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">KTF</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">呢？经过调查，原来主要原因是两家在经营思路上的差距导致。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">SK</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">电讯套用了</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">老思路，用一个非常专业的形象宣传其品牌：网速怎么怎么快、网络怎么怎么稳定、终端怎么怎么好用。而</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">KTF</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">则完全跳出了通信行业的框框，他们请了一批完全不懂通信的广告公司来策划品牌和产品，最终产生了一个叫“</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">Show</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">“的</span><chmetcnv unitname="g" sourcevalue="3" hasspace="False" negative="False" numbertype="1" tcsc="0" wst="on"></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">3G</span><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">品牌，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">Show</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">的品牌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">LOGO</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">非常有趣，是一个播放器的按钮，其品牌含义是在新的通信时代，用户可以尽情的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">show</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">出自己，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">show</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">出周围。该品牌推出后，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">KTF</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">所有门店的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">LOGO</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">都更换成了这个标志，并且在媒体上推出了大量非常生动的广告（例如老爸通过手机视频逗乐婴儿，远在法国的女朋友通过手机视频让韩国的男友帮助点菜）。在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">Show</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">的广告中，几乎看不到任何</span><chmetcnv unitname="g" sourcevalue="3" hasspace="False" negative="False" numbertype="1" tcsc="0" wst="on"></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">3G</span><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">、带宽等专业的术语，但是效果却出奇的好，一经推出就引起哄动，吸引了大量用户。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;"><p></p></span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">在我身边也有一些有趣的例子。我有一哥们，原来是卖摩托车的，后来在阿里巴巴干了一段时间，然后又跑到小网通。小网通散伙后，他又跑到电信去面试，结果电信的人觉得他没什么资历，也没要他。最后这哥们又找关系回到了大网通，却如鱼得水，居然在较短的时间内帮助网通发展了几万宽带用户，要知道这可是在电信垄断宽带的南方啊。后来我问他有什么秘方，他说是非电信业的经验帮助了他。他原来在阿里巴巴的经验告诉他用户的上网需求是什么，因此他首先建议公司大力发展门户网站，重点是宽带视频，然后将宽带产品和网站捆绑推广，而他卖摩托车的经历又使得他懂得如何有效、低成本的去推广产品。结果大获成功，事实证明，很多用户使用网通的宽带，就是冲着网通的宽带视频服务去的。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;"><p></p></span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">所以说一个企业在一个时代是最牛、最专业，并不意味着他能够在未来的竞争中领先。关键是要跳出框框，开拓视野，看清未来，把握方向。所谓的专家也不一定就是干的最好的，这个世界还有很多方面你并不了解，并未看清。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;"><p></p></span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">我有一次做了一个噩梦，梦见一个公司抢了我们的饭碗。梦惊醒之后，我努力回忆这个公司是怎么打败我们的，隐约记得是因为手机上网普及后，所有用户都不必再依赖运营商的语音业务了，他可以通过</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">IP</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">电话自由的与任何人通话，也许连电话号码都消失了，取而代之的是网名或</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">QQ</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">号。也许这个公司就是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">Skype</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">，或者是腾讯，或者是</span><chmetcnv unitname="g" sourcevalue="3" hasspace="False" negative="False" numbertype="1" tcsc="0" wst="on"></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">3G</span><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><chmetcnv></chmetcnv><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma;">门户，而不是现在的这几个运营商。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">所以为什么电信这几年拼命发展数据业务和转型业务，拼命往信息化的方向发展，因为这是方向啊，也是未来救命的稻草。这也就是我为什么看好电信，因为他离信息化的目标最近。但是由于电信本身是个老企业，受老思想和老观念的束缚太深，用人观念和用人机制尤其有问题，非常缺乏经营新业务的人才，因此很难说电信在新的道路上能走多远，也只有谨慎看好了。移动实际上做的也不错，但由于一些先天的劣势，其前景也很难预测。因此我是谨慎的不看好。谨慎的看好和谨慎的不看好其实就是一纸之隔，未来这两个企业谁拔头筹，主要取决于企业的目标是否清晰正确、步骤是否合理、执行是否到位。在通信产业高速发展的今天，谁只要走错一步，就会步步被动，甚至消亡。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">至于联通我为什么不看好，主要是和自己的经历有关。在上一次的拆分重组中，我作为弱势运营商的一分子，亲身经历了企业重组的迷茫和残酷，那段时间也是我人生最悲惨的一段时间，可以说不堪回首。因此，我可能比论坛上很多没有类似经历的兄弟更能理解不科学的企业重组所带来的巨大危害。这已经不是政策、市场和技术问题了，而是人性的问题，复杂的、阴暗的人性。在这样的重组过程中，你会看到人性中几乎所有的丑陋。所以我永远不会相信在这样的重组背景下能够诞生什么优秀的公司。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">当然，我决无任何鄙视和诅咒联通之意，我希望我的判断和预测是完全错误的。但是我要提醒那些和联通重组相关的兄弟姐妹，要做好准备，对你们很多人来说，未来将会是一场人生历练，虽然短期来说可能是一种痛苦，但是从长远来说，这是人生当中难得的宝贵经历，也将会是你们走向成熟的标志。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">在此祝愿所有的通信人都能够有一个灿烂的明天！</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">以下是延伸阅读-------------------------------------------------</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"><a href="http://www.txrjy.com/viewthread.php?tid=261755"><strong><font color="#0066ff">中国电信业的改革，走一步是一步</font></strong></a></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"><br/><strong><font color="#0066ff"></font></strong></span></p><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"><a href="http://www.txrjy.com/viewthread.php?tid=262212"><strong><font color="#0066ff">对精华帖子“走一步是一步”的一些不同看法</font></strong></a></span></p>

[此贴子已经被作者于2008-6-3 18:09:03编辑过]