PHS前景及行业分析

w8102300

<p>08年3月，电信行业重组在即，PHS网络似乎也走到了尽头，该何去何从？以下是我的一点分析：</p><p>一、&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 行业背景</p><div align="center"><table class="MsoTableGrid" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" style="BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; BORDER-TOP: medium none; MARGIN: auto auto auto -12.5pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 480; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-border-insideh: .5pt solid windowtext; mso-border-insidev: .5pt solid windowtext;"><tbody><tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes;"><td valign="top" width="88" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 65.75pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">区</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp; </font></span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">域</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="80" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 60.15pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">用户数量</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="124" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 92.85pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">运</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">
                                                                </font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">营</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">
                                                                </font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">商</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="102" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 76.15pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">速</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp; </font></span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">率</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="144" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 108.1pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">备</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp; </font></span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">注</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p></td></tr><tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;"><td valign="top" width="88" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 65.75pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">日本</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="80" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 60.15pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">479</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">万</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="124" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 92.85pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">Willcom<p></p></font></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="102" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 76.15pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1MBit<p></p></font></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="144" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 108.1pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">最早运营</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p></td></tr><tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;"><td valign="top" width="88" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 65.75pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">中国台湾</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="80" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 60.15pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">124</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">万</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="124" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 92.85pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">大众电信</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="102" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 76.15pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">256KBit<p></p></font></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="144" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 108.1pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">可在日本漫游</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p></td></tr><tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;"><td valign="top" width="88" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 65.75pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">中国大陆</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="80" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 60.15pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">8172</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">万</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="124" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 92.85pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">中国电信</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">网通</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="102" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 76.15pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">64K/128KBit<p></p></font></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="144" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 108.1pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">用户最多</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p></td></tr><tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;"><td valign="top" width="88" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 65.75pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">泰国</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="80" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 60.15pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">35</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">万</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="124" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 92.85pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">Telecom <place wst="on">Asia</place><p></p></font></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="102" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 76.15pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">20MBit<p></p></font></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="144" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 108.1pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">速度最快</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p></td></tr><tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;"><td valign="top" width="88" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 65.75pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">越南</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="80" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 60.15pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">20</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">万</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="124" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 92.85pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">VNPT<p></p></font></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="102" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 76.15pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">64KBit<p></p></font></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="144" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 108.1pt; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 26pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">固网及移动运营商</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><p>日本：PHS在日本属于民族工业，是完全由日本独立研发的自有技术，PHS终端被定义为移动电话，日本是3G最早商用的国家之一，其政府将WiMax和PHS共同作为3G标准来发展，共发放2张3G牌照，一张给KDDI发展WiMax，另一张给Willcom发展PHS，目前，Willcom已经研发出下行速率达20MBit的PHS无线传输方案(次世代PHS)，并已在泰国成功商用，而其国内的语音资费又十分便宜(￥20/月，包打日本国内电话不限时，并且可以在台湾、泰国及中国的部分PHS网络中实现漫游)，日本国内现有基站16万个，覆盖98％的国土面积。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>中国：PHS从日本引进，在中国曾被称为落后的通信技术，PHS终端被定义为市内固定电话的扩展与延伸，由于当时相对手机极为便宜的资费标准，致使小灵通在短短几年内发展了9000多万语音用户，占全世界PHS用户的95％以上，但随着近年来手机资费的不断下调及单项收费业务的推出，PHS网络出现了大量的用户离网率，截至3月15日为止，北方网通在网用户为3412.91万，南方电信在网用户为4759.13万，08年第一季度全国用户离网数量超过130万。面对这种局面，固网运营商从07年夏天开始推出PHS无线上网卡业务，初期以64KBit速率为主，目前在泉州、青岛、济南、杭州已达到128KBit速率，北京、重庆、成都等地也即将开通128KBit速率的上网方式，终端产品主要以PAMCIA、CF、USB等接口为主，支持笔记本电脑及PDA等设备接入，终端产品主要以朗讯、UT等大厂商为主，另还有10余个小厂商的产品。</p><p>现状分析：</p><p>网络方面：由于PHS网络的基站之间是通过大量的电路进行连接的，而电路又是由固网运营商所拥有的，故前期的PHS网络建设并没有把这部分电路的占用计入成本之内，所以资费非常低，但是如果重组之后PHS网络脱离固网运营商的话，成本就会剧烈增加，如果真有那一天，不要说资费降到和日本一样便宜，就是自身的存亡都未可知。</p><p>终端方面：目前，国内外各大厂商纷纷宣布退出PHS技术领域，目前，国内只有中兴、英华达和一些小厂商在勉力维持，而最近英华达也大面积的在国内销售网络中搞瘦身转而经营CDMA终端，目前市面上现有的小灵通也多以中低端产品为主。而日本市面上的小灵通终端则不同：动辄就是windows mobile的操作系统，800×480的分辨率，超高的存储、音乐及摄像功能，还有定位等增值业务可以使用，可以说比现在国内四五千元的智能手机有过之而无不及，因为在日本小灵通终端被定义为移动电话，而不像在国内主要面向中低端人群，实在是定位就有问题。</p><p>基站及覆盖方面：日本国内有16万个基站，中国有160万个基站，但中国国土面积是日本的25倍，所以日本的基站密度就是中国的2.5倍，日本可以覆盖98％的国土面积，而中国却到处都是信号盲区；其二，日本使用的是500毫瓦的基站(单站覆盖范围更大)，而中国大部分地区使用的是20毫瓦的基站，所以日本的小灵通通话音质不低于固话，而中国的小灵通却信号不好，时断时续，尤其是在移动的过程中(地球人都知道)，虽然现在语音用户退网率很高，运营商希望通过PHS网络的数据业务重新抢回用户，但是这样的网络实在是不容乐观，可以说是“先天不足，后天失调”，而日本则计划在未来2年内再投资20亿美金进行网络升级，并计划明年第四季度在其国内推出20MBit的PHS无线上网业务。</p><p>由于固网运营商12％的收入来自PHS，而且到目前为止，光中国网通就已经在PHS上投资了近400亿，所以在重组之际，中国网通就有多位高层公开表示不会轻易放弃小灵通，但是，这也不表示就会轻易再投资PHS网络，因为大面积的网优和增大覆盖密度意味着巨额的投资(但今年的3期网优均按计划如期进行中)，所以，这就为中国引进新一代的PHS技术制造了不可逾越的阻碍。</p><p>07年末中国网通宣布已与willcom签订框架协议，由willcom利用自身的PHS网络运营经验和先进技术为中国网通改造现有的PHS网络，以期达到下一代PHS技术的传输速率，但我个人认为，难度太大，不太现实：首先，willcom的次世代PHS是基于2.5G的芯片研发的，很难导入中国现有的1.9G芯片方案中去，另外，中国一半的网络是UT布的，但UT使用的是自己的标准，比如FACCH2等技术，所以导致技术上很难融合，另外，由于中国的基站普遍功率太低，且日本的次世代PHS是基于OFDM技术的，再比如保护环技术等，这些都是4G的核心技术之一，以中国目前的网络质量根本无法承载，而要做到以上这些，没有几百亿根本无法完成全网升级。关于增值服务方面的对比：在日本，PHS网络除了基本的语音及电话功能外，还拥有极为丰富的增值业务，比如在遍布东京街头的自动售贩机中，基本都安装了PHS通信芯片。安装了芯片的机器会自动向总部报告当天或实时的销售情况以及货物、零钱和温度情况，以便统计和及时向机器中补充新的饮料，不会像以前耗费大量人力，工作盲目。此外，很多玩具中也预置了PHS通信芯片，奶奶们可以通过内置上述芯片的各种玩具找到出门游玩的小孙女，小孙女也会非常开心通过自己的玩具和奶奶说话。健康的问题一直为人津津乐道，日本规定手机终端必须要公开SAR值(SAR是关于人体吸收电波的标准技术值)，日本规定手机的SAR的值要低于2，最低的移动电话SAR的值也在0.57左右，而小灵通只有0.04左右甚至更低。Willcom加强了PHS手机低辐射的优势的宣传。由于PHS的SAR值只是手机的1/12至1/30(GSM网络的基站功率为20瓦，终端为1瓦，PHS网络的基站功率为500毫瓦，终端为10毫瓦)，所以小灵通的低辐射也是很多日本用户选择它的一个原因。日本医院内手机是禁止使用的，而小灵通手机则可以使用，因为它的发射功率低，所以对医院的仪器不会造成任何影响。有消息称，中国将制定世界上最严格的手机辐射标准。这对于小灵通来说，将是一个重新定位的好机会。但目前为止，国内只是部分地区开展了灵通彩铃/彩信等简单增值业务(基本都是从手机终端简单移植过来的业务模型)，我认为在中国，我们除应借鉴日本已经成熟的模式外，还可以充分发掘各种行业大客户，比如，煤矿中瓦斯浓度比较高，对通信设备的电磁功率有限制，而PHS网络则可以很好的满足需求，再比如，由于PHS网络的数据传输是最廉价的无线传输方案，所以它可以用于城市内各种有联网处理数据需求的终端或基础设施内。其实，无论是手机还是小灵通，在语音业务日趋成熟的今天，以数据为基础的增值业务都应该是未来增加收入的重要途径。<br/></p>